Category: MENA

Military build-up on Turkish-Iraqi border

SITUATION REPORT – A video appeared online supposedly showing a military build-up in the Turkish southeastern region of Hakkari, near the Iraqi border. The convoy is formed by dozens of…

SITUATION REPORT – A video appeared online supposedly showing a military build-up in the Turkish southeastern region of Hakkari, near the Iraqi border. The convoy is formed by dozens of vehicles; the number may even reach a hundred.

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Solving the Refugee Crisis: an Euro-Atlantic solution

When I first thought about a solution for the refugee crisis, it was back in early 2015 when just the Turkish authorities seemed to share a similar option. After several…

When I first thought about a solution for the refugee crisis, it was back in early 2015 when just the Turkish authorities seemed to share a similar option. After several terror attacks, degrading security environment in European cities, a regional humanitarian crisis and a huge political burden for mainstream parties, I think the world should explore some other options than  the “wide” open door policy de facto assumed as EU’s migration policy; followed by the quota system, that distributed refugees in each member country and then the flawed, unrealistic Turkish deal, that have created a recipe for implosion of the European Union. The migration crisis is hardly to blame for this situation, as the organization’s completely lacks any kind of security or defense capacity, yet new reports now start speaking about a global role for the EU – how do you plan to implement a global strategy by lacking hard power? Whatever. The lack of US leadership and the unwillingness to boost capable regional actors were also a defining factor of this chapter.

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Objective Raqqa: the Wrath of Euphrates

The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) have officially announced that they’ve began an operation with the objective of liberating ISIL’s self-declared capital of Raqqa. The press conference held by the multi-ethnic…

The SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces) have officially announced that they’ve began an operation with the objective of liberating ISIL’s self-declared capital of Raqqa. The press conference held by the multi-ethnic group also mentioned that it urges Turkey to “stay out of Syrian affairs” and that a deal was struck between the SDF and the US to keep Turkey out of the operation titled “Wrath of the Euphrates”. The SDF also mentions that it strong cooperation with assets inside Raqqa and that civilian safety is a top priority.

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Road to Mosul: The only easy day was… yesterday (Video Briefing)

The hottest topic of the moment in the Middle East. The Iraqi Federal Forces, Kurdish Pashmerga and US-led Coalition are now spearheading towards ISIS last stronghold in Iraq: Mosul. Learn…

The hottest topic of the moment in the Middle East. The Iraqi Federal Forces, Kurdish Pashmerga and US-led Coalition are now spearheading towards ISIS last stronghold in Iraq: Mosul. Learn how they’ve got here and what information do we have about the terror group’s activity and movements in the city. Will they retreat for a last stand in Raqqa or will they held their ground in Mosul?

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Credible Ceasefire or a Strategic Time-out?

A diplomatic effort to halt the hostilities in Syria has been green-lighted Sunday, September 11th, with the Syrian Arab News Agency said the truce would run from 7.00 p.m. local…

A diplomatic effort to halt the hostilities in Syria has been green-lighted Sunday, September 11th, with the Syrian Arab News Agency said the truce would run from 7.00 p.m. local time (1600GMT) Monday to 11.59 p.m. local time (2059GMT) on Sept. 18. The cease of hostilities (CoH) has been negotiated by the United States and Russia, and was later approved by Iran and the Syrian Regime, led by Assad.

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Road to Mosul: Iraq in Review

The Islamic State organization has been on the losing side for the last year in Syria and Iraq. Pentagon estimated in August that over 25,000 ISIS operators have been killed…

The Islamic State organization has been on the losing side for the last year in Syria and Iraq. Pentagon estimated in August that over 25,000 ISIS operators have been killed in the last 11 months, with additional estimate of 20,000 killed in the year before. General MacFarland said estimates for the overall remaining strength of ISIS vary from about 15,000 to 30,000 but said the jihadists are having increasing difficulties replenishing their ranks. Besides heavy casualties, the big losses were also accounted as territory, funds, maneuverability and oil industry.

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Mission Accomplished: Border Security à la Ankara

The following is an operational review focused on Operation Euphrates Shield, launched, coordinated by the Turkish Armed Forces and spearheaded by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and allies. Preface On…

The following is an operational review focused on Operation Euphrates Shield, launched, coordinated by the Turkish Armed Forces and spearheaded by the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and allies.

Preface

On 24th July 2016, limited Turkish tanks assets alongside Special Operators have passed the border into Syria, also assisting hundreds of Free Syrian Army (FSA) rebels to liberate the Syrian border city of Jarabulus (Operation Euphrates Shield). Located in NE Aleppo Governorate, on the north-eastern banks of the Syrian Euphrates river, the city has been under Da’esh (ISIS) control for over 2 years. Besides the internal security threat posed by Da’esh a more prioritized liability is presented by the PKK that operates inside Turkey since the 80’s and its Allies in Syria and Iraq. The PYD political groups from northern Syria has established military wings – YPG/ YPJ – since 2013 and are leading the US-backed multi-ethnic military organization Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Recent success of this group, lead and populated 60% by Kurdish forces, was translate on the ground by territorial advancements in Manbij and intentions towards Al-Bab and Jarabulus; the later city being right at the Turkish border. After this developments, Ankara has threatened and acted upon it’s words:

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Towards an Ankara-Damascus endgame in Syria?

The recent developments in northern Syria have reconfigured again the chessboard of the Syrian Civil War. Turks have crossed the border in Jarabulus alongside FSA groups to free the city…

The recent developments in northern Syria have reconfigured again the chessboard of the Syrian Civil War. Turks have crossed the border in Jarabulus alongside FSA groups to free the city from Da’esh, and then extended its effort towards ousting the YPG, and even Kurdish elements from SDF, towards east of Euphrates; the mentioned groups also planned to free Jarabulus from ISIS thereby extending Kurdish land grab to the Turkish border – from Ankara’s perspective. The US, who was believed to be in the middle of a fall out with Ankara, has not only supported the Euphrates Shield Operation in Jarabulus, but the White House publicly threatened that if the Kurds don’t retreat to the other side of the river, they will lose US support[1]. (VIDEO Briefing on the Turkish invasion in Syria here)

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Turkey enters Syria: Operation Euphrates Shield (VIDEO)

As prospected by Transylvania Intelligence since August 2015, and announced on 1 am 24 august 2016, Turkey enters Syria in a limited cross-border operation, with tanks and special forces, empowering…

As prospected by Transylvania Intelligence since August 2015, and announced on 1 am 24 august 2016, Turkey enters Syria in a limited cross-border operation, with tanks and special forces, empowering FSA groups in freeing Jarabulus from ISIS rule. With US air support, this Turkish intervention is barley just an anti-Da’esh op as it is also focused in deterring #Kurdish advancements in the west of Euphrates. Take a look at this briefing to see raw footage, battlefield context and #geopolitical explanations.

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Retrospective from an August 2015 (successful?) Forecast: Turkey enters Syria!

The news is out, Turkey has crossed the border into Syria with tanks and special operators in order to enforce a FSA-operation against ISIS in Jarabulus. While the territory has…

The news is out, Turkey has crossed the border into Syria with tanks and special operators in order to enforce a FSA-operation against ISIS in Jarabulus. While the territory has held by Da’esh for years, Ankara has moved just now because the YPG-led SDF has showed it’s aspirations to free the City. And given Turkey’s Kurdish Independence phobia this was the only pragmatic way to claim the city for itself.

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